August 29, 2013
Eurodollar:
TECHNICAL:
Our Model for June15 is = Short.
PRICE IND - Short
SEQUENCE - Neutral
VOL WEIGHTED MACD - Short
CUSTOM RSI - Short
BOP - Short
Commentary: We can't and should not ignore ongoing Risk Sentiment, however, the Model still remains Short in spite of this.
Our Model for June15 is = Short.
PRICE IND - Short
SEQUENCE - Neutral
VOL WEIGHTED MACD - Short
CUSTOM RSI - Short
BOP - Short
Commentary: We can't and should not ignore ongoing Risk Sentiment, however, the Model still remains Short in spite of this.
FUNDAMENTAL:
Today Our Model is = Neutral to Long.
ECON DATA: IJC, GDP. PCE
SPEAKERS: Bullard
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, Debt Ceiling, New FED Chief,Septaer
Commentary: Risk Sentiment needs to be monitored, however, assuming no new developments our Profiling suggests that Bullard the inflation hawk will dovish on Septaper and GDP's second print will miss to the downside.
ECON DATA: IJC, GDP. PCE
SPEAKERS: Bullard
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, Debt Ceiling, New FED Chief,Septaer
Commentary: Risk Sentiment needs to be monitored, however, assuming no new developments our Profiling suggests that Bullard the inflation hawk will dovish on Septaper and GDP's second print will miss to the downside.
SUMMARY:
Today's Best Day Trading Tip is = Neutral.
Macro Theme:
Macro Theme:
Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS
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Euribor:
TECHNICAL:
Our Model for June14 is Neutral.
BOP - Long
MONEY FLOW - Neutral to Long
DBLE STOCH - Long
ROC - Short
VOL PROFILE - Neutral
REGRESSION CHANNEL - Short
Commentary: Our Model has switched over from Neutral Short to Neutral.
FUNDAMENTAL:
Our Model for June14 is Neutral.
BOP - Long
MONEY FLOW - Neutral to Long
DBLE STOCH - Long
ROC - Short
VOL PROFILE - Neutral
REGRESSION CHANNEL - Short
Commentary: Our Model has switched over from Neutral Short to Neutral.
FUNDAMENTAL:
Today our Model is = Neutral.
ECON DATA: SP - GDP, DE - CPI, IT - Ret. Sales
SPEAKERS: Mersch, Weidmann, Rehn
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, Hawkish Speakers Today, M3 miss yesterday
Commentary: SP and IT econ data should be slight misses today but the offset is that the Hawks will be speaking. Our analysis suggests that though they may say that Rates should not go longer nevertheless the ECB is in full allotment mode and highly accommodative.
SUMMARY:
Today's Best Day Trading Tip is = Neutral.
ECON DATA: SP - GDP, DE - CPI, IT - Ret. Sales
SPEAKERS: Mersch, Weidmann, Rehn
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, Hawkish Speakers Today, M3 miss yesterday
Commentary: SP and IT econ data should be slight misses today but the offset is that the Hawks will be speaking. Our analysis suggests that though they may say that Rates should not go longer nevertheless the ECB is in full allotment mode and highly accommodative.
SUMMARY:Today's Best Day Trading Tip is = Neutral.
Macro Theme:
The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!