August 29, 2013
U.S 10yr
TRENDING - Short
VOL. WEIGHTED MACD - Short
CUSTOM RSI - Short
PRICE INDICATOR - Short
CHANNEL - Neutral
Commentary: Though we don't believe the Short Trend has technically broken down, yet, as traders we can't ignore Tail Risk. This is the reason that we have a 3 pronged model and we trade off the Summary Model below.
FUNDAMENTAL:
Today our Model is = Neutral to Long.
ECON DATA: IJC, GDP, PCE
SPEAKERS: Bullard
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, Debt Ceiling
Commentary: Though Market tensions are easing some caution must be exerted. The Fed's Bullard has been split in his support of Septaper. GDP will likely be revised lower.
ECON DATA: IJC, GDP, PCE
SPEAKERS: Bullard
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, Debt Ceiling
Commentary: Though Market tensions are easing some caution must be exerted. The Fed's Bullard has been split in his support of Septaper. GDP will likely be revised lower.
SUMMARY:
Today's Best Day Trading Tip is = Neutral to Short.
Today's Best Day Trading Tip is = Neutral to Short.
Macro Theme:
Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS
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Bunds:
TECHNICAL:
Today our Model is = Neutral to Short
TRENDING - Neutral
MONEY FLOWS - Short but weakening
DBLE STOCH - Long
ROC - Short
PRICE - Short
Commentary: Our Model is starting to change over from Short to Neutral. Bund's were not able to sustain the close above 60 that we spoke about yesterday/
Today our Model is = Neutral to Short
TRENDING - Neutral
MONEY FLOWS - Short but weakening
DBLE STOCH - Long
ROC - Short
PRICE - Short
Commentary: Our Model is starting to change over from Short to Neutral. Bund's were not able to sustain the close above 60 that we spoke about yesterday/
Today our Model is = Neutral to Short.
ECON DATA: GE-CPI, SP - GDP, IT - Ret Sales
SPEAKERS: Weidman, Mersch, Rehn
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, ECB Dovish Chatter
Commentary: While the Hawks and positive Economist have the airwaves today I am not sure how much the market will be listening given the Risk Aversion and recent dovish chatter and yesterdays weak M3.
SUMMARY:
Today's Best Day Trading Tip is = Neutral to Short.
ECON DATA: GE-CPI, SP - GDP, IT - Ret Sales
SPEAKERS: Weidman, Mersch, Rehn
POLITICAL & MISC: Syrian Conflict, ECB Dovish Chatter
Commentary: While the Hawks and positive Economist have the airwaves today I am not sure how much the market will be listening given the Risk Aversion and recent dovish chatter and yesterdays weak M3.
SUMMARY:Today's Best Day Trading Tip is = Neutral to Short.
Macro Theme:
The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!