Sunday, October 13, 2013

OUR NEW SITE IS ALMOST COMPLETE

please visit www.tradinghedges.com

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Thursday, October 10, 2013

LIVE ECON DATA NEWS AND ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS:


Day Trading Talking Points:

  • Fears of Western intervention in Syria are still front and center. As we have been spouting here at TCS for some time, it is not Syria but the circumstantial issues/fallout that anyone really cares about. It is because of these reasons that our Profiling Analysis doubts any real action will be taken by Western Powers. It would be inane at this point to intervene and every Chief of Staff should know that.
  • Well, Carney failed again yesterday to convince investors that the BOE does not foresee a near term increase in real rates. In today's Market it is either more QE or shut up and sit down.
  • In spite of of the tensions Asian markets finished higher.
  • EM, especially currencies continue to get hammered.
  • E-zone M3 missed yesterday inplying banks are once again reducing lending and really is that all that surprising.........
  • On the Econ Data front, key prints that may move market or be exaggerrated by recent risk off sentiment; SP = GDP(f) // GE = CPI, U%, US = IJC & GDP(2nd), PCE
LIVE ECON DATA:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com





SPEAKERS & SUPPLY:
ECB's Nowotny (neutral), Mersch (Hawk), Weidmann (Hawk), EU Rehn, FED's Bullard (Hawk), Lacker (Hawk non-voter) // IT 5yr & 10yr BTP 

SUMMARY:
Volumes have been shaky and although many news sources will site reasons for Asian shares to have risen overnight the more likely case is that Sellers have sold and Media outlets are starting to suggest an attack on Syria is not as imminent as first thought and therefore you had more buyers come back to the market. News will be watched very carefully, going in either direction, and that will  be the main driver of price action today. There are a number of E-zone speakers as well and US GDP 2nd print due out.





GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:
FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing


HEADLINES:
Summary: Headline news is preoccupied with one thing - SYRIA. Coming in second place is EM and the Ruppee. These will be the main drivers of price action today.

Today's Trading News:

Global Macro News:

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Monday, September 9, 2013

TradersCheatSheet UPDATE

We are in the process of moving to a new full feature site to better handle our client base.

Keep checking back with us or send us your mail and we will notify you when the transition is complete

Successful Trading!
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Friday, August 30, 2013

LIVE ECON DATA NEWS & EVENTS

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GOOD DAY TRADERS.

AHEAD OF THE U.S HOLIDAY WEEKEND WE HAVE NO COVERAGE ON FRIDAY OR MONDAY.

SEE YOU TUESDAY EVERYONE

SUCCESSFUL TRADING!!

IF YOU HAVE TIME DROP US AN E-MAIL.
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Thursday, August 29, 2013

LIVE ECON DATA NEWS & ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS:


Day Trading Talking Points:

  • Fears of Western intervention in Syria are still front and center. As we have been spouting here at TCS for some time, it is not Syria but the circumstantial issues/fallout that anyone really cares about. It is because of these reasons that our Profiling Analysis doubts any real action will be taken by Western Powers. It would be inane at this point to intervene and every Chief of Staff should know that.
  • Well, Carney failed again yesterday to convince investors that the BOE does not foresee a near term increase in real rates. In today's Market it is either more QE or shut up and sit down.
  • In spite of of the tensions Asian markets finished higher.
  • EM, especially currencies continue to get hammered.
  • E-zone M3 missed yesterday inplying banks are once again reducing lending and really is that all that surprising.........
  • On the Econ Data front, key prints that may move market or be exaggerrated by recent risk off sentiment; SP = GDP(f) // GE = CPI, U%, US = IJC & GDP(2nd), PCE
LIVE ECON DATA:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com





SPEAKERS & SUPPLY:
ECB's Nowotny (neutral), Mersch (Hawk), Weidmann (Hawk), EU Rehn, FED's Bullard (Hawk), Lacker (Hawk non-voter) // IT 5yr & 10yr BTP 

SUMMARY:
Volumes have been shaky and although many news sources will site reasons for Asian shares to have risen overnight the more likely case is that Sellers have sold and Media outlets are starting to suggest an attack on Syria is not as imminent as first thought and therefore you had more buyers come back to the market. News will be watched very carefully, going in either direction, and that will  be the main driver of price action today. There are a number of E-zone speakers as well and US GDP 2nd print due out.





GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:
FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing


HEADLINES:
Summary: Headline news is preoccupied with one thing - SYRIA. Coming in second place is EM and the Ruppee. These will be the main drivers of price action today.

Today's Trading News:

Global Macro News:

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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

LIVE ECON DATA NEWS & ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS:


Day Trading Talking Points:

  • Geopolitical risks grip the markets sending Fixed Income higher and risky assets lower. Gold, Silver, & Oil were all heavily bid as well. Our analysis suggests that  Western Powers will not immediately intercede. [Our analysis suggests that any conflict with Syria is either unlikely or extremely limited. The consequences of a regional escalation and the implication for global world powers is too dangerous to justify any major action or intervention by Western Powers.]
  • Asia markets continued the Risk Off theme with the Nikkei down better than 2% in overnight trading.
  • Germany's IFO was a beat yesterday just as predicted right here at TCS, though we missed the US Consumer Confidence call which was a beat.
  • ECB's Asmussen was busy talking down rates once again as he stated that accomodative policy will remain in place for as long as necessary.......
  • Merkel was quoted as saying yesterday that Greece should not have been let into the Euro.......... read it here!
  • On the Eco data docket today there is Euro area M3, UK CBI Sales, and Pending Home sales in the U.S
LIVE ECON DATA:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com





SPEAKERS & SUPPLY:
BOE's Carney // EFSF & U.S 5yr 

SUMMARY:
This is typical Risk Off mode and should be traded as such. However, should this Risk Aversion start to recede U.S Treasuries will look like a great sell.There is no real major market data on the docket for today. BOE's Carney will likely be the big hit today. He is widely expected to talk down rates as his first attempt as the BOE's head was major failure.





GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:
FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing


HEADLINES:
Summary: Markets are very concerned over the escalation of tensions in Syria and more so the likely fallout should Western Powers lock and load. The negative news cloud is abound with hardly one economic supportive article out there making any rounds. This sentiment should keep Fixed Income and Oil heavily bid while Equities and Risk Assets look for cover.

Today's Trading News:

Global Macro News:

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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

LIVE ECON DATA NEWS & ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS:


Day Trading Talking Points:

  • As called yesterday right here on TCS, US Durable Goods was a huge miss putting 2 misses back to back (Housing & D.G)
  • Risk is currently on its back foot as the Geopolitical Risks we have been warning about are starting to materialize. Our analysis: The U.S by itself will NOT engage Syria
  • JPY gained strength as the Safe Haven trade resumed. That of course is never good news for Asia Equities which moved lower during the Asian session.
  • Debt Ceiling talk has reemerged with the point of no return suggested to be in October.
  • Though Risk Aversion and the weak US data seem like they will carry us through the opening EU session there is some market moving ECO DATA: IFO (usually this is a beat), Case Shiller, US Consmr Conf, and Richmd FED that could turn  the tides a little
LIVE ECON DATA:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com





SPEAKERS & SUPPLY:
FED's - Williams (non voter), ECB's - Coeure (dove), Asmussen (neutral) // IT 5yr BTP

SUMMARY:
Consumer Confidence may be a big mover today coming off recent negative prints. If IFO misses which it hardly ever does this will be a huge long for Euribor given the Risk Off sentiment and the ECB Jackson Hole chatter regarding more room for "action". Combine that with an ECB dove and neutralist speaking today and European Fixed Income may pop a little.





GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:
FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing


HEADLINES:
Summary: Spooking the markets for now are Geopolitical risks. However, China still maintains a close second followed by the collapse of EM and Fed Talk. Risk Aversion is in control coming into the EU opening session

Today's Trading News:

Global Macro News:

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Monday, August 26, 2013

LIVE ECON DATA NEWS & ANALYSIS

MARKET ANALYSIS:

 update: durable goods a huge miss

Day Trading Talking Points:

  • Headline news is negative China once again (see below).
  • Equities rose slightly during the overnight Asia session
  • Jackson Hole reveals EM hole but not to worry EM will be able to withstand SeptTaper.........or not
  • ECB members dont rule out another cut - EURIBOR BUND TRADERS.
  • Markets still digesting Friday's poor housing numbers
  • ECON Data - US Durable Goods
  • UK Holiday
LIVE ECON DATA:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com





SPEAKERS & SUPPLY:
Weidmann// EFSF New 10y Benchmark via syndication 

SUMMARY:
Durable Goods will be huge today coming off Friday's dismal housing numbers. With Asia already trading higher and Weidmann on the wires markets could continue to bounce higher. Aside from digesting ECB member comments during the EU session there is little data on the docket until the U.S opens.





GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:
FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing


HEADLINES:
Summary: The news headlines are swirling once again and China and EM are in target scope. we seems headed for a collision course. Headline news should prove favorable for Fixed Income and Equities today.

Today's Trading News:

Global Macro News:

MARKET ANALYSIS:

 update: durable goods a huge miss

Day Trading Talking Points:

  • Headline news is negative China once again (see below).
  • Equities rose slightly during the overnight Asia session
  • Jackson Hole reveals EM hole but not to worry EM will be able to withstand SeptTaper.........or not
  • ECB members dont rule out another cut - EURIBOR BUND TRADERS.
  • Markets still digesting Friday's poor housing numbers
  • ECON Data - US Durable Goods
  • UK Holiday
LIVE ECON DATA:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com





SPEAKERS & SUPPLY:
Weidmann// EFSF New 10y Benchmark via syndication 

SUMMARY:
Durable Goods will be huge today coming off Friday's dismal housing numbers. With Asia already trading higher and Weidmann on the wires markets could continue to bounce higher. Aside from digesting ECB member comments during the EU session there is little data on the docket until the U.S opens.





GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:
FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing


HEADLINES:
Summary: The news headlines are swirling once again and China and EM are in target scope. we seems headed for a collision course. Headline news should prove favorable for Fixed Income and Equities today.

Today's Trading News:

Global Macro News:


























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DURABLE GOODS A HUGE MISS

AUGUST 26, 2013

SHORT     RANGE     LONG 





August 26, 2013


U.S 10yr
TECHNICAL
Today Our model is = Short. .
TRENDING - STRONG
VOL. WEIGHTED MACD - STRONG
CUSTOM RSI - STRONG
PRICE INDICATOR - SHORT
CHANNEL - LIMITED SHORT
Commentary:

FUNDAMENTAL:
Today our Model is = Short. 
ECON DATA: Durable Goods
SPEAKERS: n/a
POLITICAL & MISC: Jackson Hole Fall out
Commentary: Though Septaper looks to be a done deal, coming off the weak housing numbers and the defensive feeling Jackson Hole if Durable Goods falls short then Fixed Income will likely move higher. Our analysis says Durable Goods will be a miss today.

SUMMARY:
Our Combined Model is = Short with Caution Flag. see "Commentary" above.





Macro Theme:
Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS


Bunds:
TECHNICAL:
Today our Model is = Short 
MODEL INDICATORS:
TRENDING - STRONG but weakening
MONEY FLOWS - STRONG
DBLE STOCH - showing a Bullish turn around possible
ROC - STRONG
PRICE - NEUTRAL
Commentary: Our Model is Short however, both the Money Flow and Double Stoch are reaching oversold levels especially as price is having a harder time moving lower which is setting up a divergence pattern.

FUNDAMENTAL:
Today our Model is = Neutral. 
ECON DATA: n/a
SPEAKERS: Weidmann who is normally Short for Bunds unless he is addressing EU Periph.
POLITICAL & MISC: ECB Member chatter over the w/e was Long Bunds
Commentary: Bunds may not move much all in all on the day. We have mixed commentary from the ECB offset by Weidmann and SeptTaper.


SUMMARY:
Our Combined Model is = Neutral to Short. 


Macro Theme:
The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!

August 26, 2013


    Eurodollar:
    TECHNICAL:
    Our Model for June15 is = Short. 
    PRICE IND - STRONG but weakeneing
    SEQUENCE - Possible Consolidation
    VOL WEIGHTED MACD - STRONG
    CUSTOM RSI - STRONG but weakening
    BOP - STRONG 
    Commentary: We are starting to see a first sign of some possible Trend weakening but not enough to take us out of the Short.


    FUNDAMENTAL:
    Today Our Model is =  Short to Neutral.
    ECON DATA: Durable Goods
    SPEAKERS: n/a
    POLITICAL & MISC: Jackson Hole Fall out
    Commentary: Though Septaper looks to be a done deal, coming off the weak housing numbers and the defensive feeling of Jackson Hole - if Durable Goods falls short then Fixed Income will likely move higher. Our analysis says Durable Goods will be a miss today.

    SUMMARY:
    Our combined Model is Neutral to Short. 





    Macro Theme:
    Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS


    Euribor:
    TECHNICAL:
    Our Model for June14  is Neutral to Short. 
    BOP - Neutral
    MONEY FLOW - Short 
    DBLE STOCH - Short by weakening
    ROC - Short 
    VOL PROFILE - Range Bound 
    REGRESSION CHANNEL - Short 
    Commentary: There is definitely more room to move Short, however, the model is not fully sold so be cautious on the first look of a Market wanting to reverse.


    FUNDAMENTAL:
    Today Our Model is =  Neutral.
    ECON DATA: n/a
    SPEAKERS: Weidmann is usually a Short
    POLITICAL & MISC: ECB Member chatter suggesting another Rate Cut is not off the table
    Commentary: Fundamentals are mixed today and excluding Weidmann we feel there is a good chance we see a slight pullback today

    SUMMARY:
    Our combined Model is = Neutral . 



    Macro Theme:
    The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!

    August 26, 2013

      SPX:
      TECHNICAL:
      Today Our model is = Neutral.
      BOP - STRONG but weakening
      VOL. WEIGHTED MACD - STRONG but weakening
      CUSTOM RSI - Short and weakening
      PRICE INDICATOR - Neutral
      VOL. PROFILE - Neutral
      Commentary: Though there is exists a Short bias, input variables are weakening or Neutral.



      FUNDAMENTAL:
      Today our Model is = Neutral. 
      ECON DATA: Durable Goods
      SPEAKERS: n/a
      POLITICAL & MISC: Jackson Hole Fall out
      Commentary: Though Septaper looks to be a done deal, coming off the weak housing numbers and the defensive feeling of Jackson Hole - if Durable Goods falls short then Equities will trade Mixed to Long Our analysis says Durable Goods will be a miss today.

      SUMMARY:
      Our combined Model is Neutral today. 







      Macro Theme:
      Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS


      DAX:
      TECHNICAL:
      Today Our Model is = Neutral to Long. 
      BOP - Neutral
      MONEY FLOW -Neutral Long
      DBLE STOCH - Neutral
      ROC - Neutral
      REGRESSION CHNL - NEUTRAL to Long
      VOL PROFILE - Neutral


      FUNDAMENTAL:
      Today our Model is = Neutral. 
      ECON DATA: n/a
      SPEAKERS: Weidmann who is normally Short for Equities unless he is addressing EU Periph.
      POLITICAL & MISC: ECB Member chatter over the w/e was Long Equities
      Commentary: Unless Weidmann spoils the party which he is known to do the DAX can continue rallying though with limited upside


      SUMMARY:
      Our Combined Model is = Neutral to Long. 




      Macro Theme:
      The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!



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