DURABLE GOODS A HUGE MISS

AUGUST 26, 2013

SHORT     RANGE     LONG 

August 26, 2013

U.S 10yr

TECHNICAL
Today Our model is = Short. .
TRENDING - STRONG
VOL. WEIGHTED MACD - STRONG
CUSTOM RSI - STRONG
PRICE INDICATOR - SHORT
CHANNEL - LIMITED SHORT
Commentary:

FUNDAMENTAL:

Today our Model is = Short. 
ECON DATA: Durable Goods
SPEAKERS: n/a
POLITICAL & MISC: Jackson Hole Fall out
Commentary: Though Septaper looks to be a done deal, coming off the weak housing numbers and the defensive feeling Jackson Hole if Durable Goods falls short then Fixed Income will likely move higher. Our analysis says Durable Goods will be a miss today.

SUMMARY:
Our Combined Model is = Short with Caution Flag. see "Commentary" above.

Macro Theme:

Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS

Bunds:

TECHNICAL:
Today our Model is = Short 
MODEL INDICATORS:
TRENDING - STRONG but weakening
MONEY FLOWS - STRONG
DBLE STOCH - showing a Bullish turn around possible
ROC - STRONG
PRICE - NEUTRAL
Commentary: Our Model is Short however, both the Money Flow and Double Stoch are reaching oversold levels especially as price is having a harder time moving lower which is setting up a divergence pattern.

FUNDAMENTAL:

Today our Model is = Neutral. 
ECON DATA: n/a
SPEAKERS: Weidmann who is normally Short for Bunds unless he is addressing EU Periph.
POLITICAL & MISC: ECB Member chatter over the w/e was Long Bunds
Commentary: Bunds may not move much all in all on the day. We have mixed commentary from the ECB offset by Weidmann and SeptTaper.

SUMMARY:
Our Combined Model is = Neutral to Short. 

Macro Theme:

The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!

August 26, 2013

Eurodollar:

TECHNICAL:
Our Model for June15 is = Short. 
PRICE IND - STRONG but weakeneing
SEQUENCE - Possible Consolidation
VOL WEIGHTED MACD - STRONG
CUSTOM RSI - STRONG but weakening
BOP - STRONG 
Commentary: We are starting to see a first sign of some possible Trend weakening but not enough to take us out of the Short.

FUNDAMENTAL:

Today Our Model is =  Short to Neutral.
ECON DATA: Durable Goods
SPEAKERS: n/a
POLITICAL & MISC: Jackson Hole Fall out
Commentary: Though Septaper looks to be a done deal, coming off the weak housing numbers and the defensive feeling of Jackson Hole - if Durable Goods falls short then Fixed Income will likely move higher. Our analysis says Durable Goods will be a miss today.

SUMMARY:

Our combined Model is Neutral to Short. 





Macro Theme:

Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS

Euribor:

TECHNICAL:
Our Model for June14  is Neutral to Short. 
BOP - Neutral
MONEY FLOW - Short 
DBLE STOCH - Short by weakening
ROC - Short 
VOL PROFILE - Range Bound 
REGRESSION CHANNEL - Short 
Commentary: There is definitely more room to move Short, however, the model is not fully sold so be cautious on the first look of a Market wanting to reverse.


FUNDAMENTAL:

Today Our Model is =  Neutral.
ECON DATA: n/a
SPEAKERS: Weidmann is usually a Short
POLITICAL & MISC: ECB Member chatter suggesting another Rate Cut is not off the table
Commentary: Fundamentals are mixed today and excluding Weidmann we feel there is a good chance we see a slight pullback today

SUMMARY:
Our combined Model is = Neutral . 

Macro Theme:

The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!

August 26, 2013

SPX:

TECHNICAL:

Today Our model is = Neutral.

BOP - STRONG but weakening

VOL. WEIGHTED MACD - STRONG but weakening

CUSTOM RSI - Short and weakening

PRICE INDICATOR - Neutral

VOL. PROFILE - Neutral

Commentary: Though there is exists a Short bias, input variables are weakening or Neutral.

FUNDAMENTAL:

Today our Model is = Neutral. 

ECON DATA: Durable Goods

SPEAKERS: n/a

POLITICAL & MISC: Jackson Hole Fall out

Commentary: Though Septaper looks to be a done deal, coming off the weak housing numbers and the defensive feeling of Jackson Hole - if Durable Goods falls short then Equities will trade Mixed to Long Our analysis says Durable Goods will be a miss today.

SUMMARY:

Our combined Model is Neutral today. 

Macro Theme:

Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS

DAX:

TECHNICAL:

Today Our Model is = Neutral to Long. 

BOP - Neutral

MONEY FLOW -Neutral Long

DBLE STOCH - Neutral

ROC - Neutral

REGRESSION CHNL - NEUTRAL to Long

VOL PROFILE - Neutral

FUNDAMENTAL:

Today our Model is = Neutral. 

ECON DATA: n/a

SPEAKERS: Weidmann who is normally Short for Equities unless he is addressing EU Periph.

POLITICAL & MISC: ECB Member chatter over the w/e was Long Equities

Commentary: Unless Weidmann spoils the party which he is known to do the DAX can continue rallying though with limited upside

SUMMARY:

Our Combined Model is = Neutral to Long. 

Macro Theme:

The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!