Equities

August 13, 2013

SPX:

TECHNICAL:

Our model is mixed which suggests we are still well within  technical Range Bound trading.

FUNDAMENTAL:

The sentiment has shifted to Risk On from the Asian session. With EU data likely to beat and possible inflationary proof data out in, UK Fixed Income could notch lower. This should cause Equities to squeeze higher.

SUMMARY:

Tech & Fundmntl suggest Equities will Outperform today.

Macro Theme:

Clearly the market will lean towards being SHORT the 10's knowing that the BIG TAPER is just months away. Remember the TAPER is new just as TARP was 5 years ago. Bonds caught a bid and stayed bid and since the Taper talk bonds have been largely offered and stayed that way and likely will. FED Talk is of course down playing the impact but for now the Macro Trend is clear - SHORT BIAS

DAX:

TECHNICAL:

Though our model has not given the full greenlight we are heading into a long though there may be limited upside.

FUNDAMENTAL:

The sentiment has shifted to Risk On from the Asian session. With EU data likely to beat and possible inflationary proof data out in, UK Fixed Income could notch lower. This should cause Equities to squeeze higher.

SUMMARY:

Tech & Fundmntl suggest Equities will Outperform today.

Macro Theme:

The ECB is out of tools. Their situation is precarious as recent data has bottomed out but not strong enough to turn the European recession around which means all they can do IS TALK DOWN RATES but TAKE NO ACTION!