MARKET ANALYSIS:
SUMMARY: Short Sterling, GBP and Gilt traders pay special attention to today's inflation data given the BOE's strong concern. EUR, Euribor and Bund traders expect a beat on ZEW given recent better than expected prints and that ZEW rarely misses to the downside.
SPEAKERS:
FED's Lockhart (non voter) and & Merkel
HEADLINES:
Summary: There is no leading sentiment from headline news this AM. This suggests that market price action will be wide open to today's economic events & speakers .
Watch out AUD more pain to come - Bloomberg
Asia session ends good for Equities - Bloomberg
This becomes more meaningful should Yellen assume the mantle - WSJ
More E-zone crisis "Not over yet" articles. Not that we disagree but everyone is waiting for the collapse - Telegraph
I am not sure that this comment from Pimco on the steepening Gilt curve will surprise traders - Bloomberg
Commodities rise may signal more belief that FED Talk is working
Here is the proof that the TAPER will come in Sept. why else would the FED put out a by the way report that "FED Talk" is more effective than "QE". Well b/c if is not than look out bond market come sept.
- The JPY weakened overnight and the Nikkei turned positive which leads us into a more RISK ON sentiment to start the EU session.
- SUMMARY: With Commodities on the rise, more specifically Gold, and the JPY weakening as the Nikkei moves higher and little thematic Headline News our Sentiment Model suggests that equities will outperform as Fixed Income grinds lower. SENTIMENT TRADING TO OPEN THE EU SESSION IS RANGE BUT WITH A RISK ON BIAS.
SUMMARY: Short Sterling, GBP and Gilt traders pay special attention to today's inflation data given the BOE's strong concern. EUR, Euribor and Bund traders expect a beat on ZEW given recent better than expected prints and that ZEW rarely misses to the downside.
| Currency | Econ Data. | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | -2.70% | -7.10% | 10.50% |
| JPY | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| AUD | NAB Business Confidence | -3 | 0 | |
| EUR | German Final CPI m/m | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| GBP | CPI y/y | 2.80% | 2.90% | |
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | 1.20% | 0.20% | |
| GBP | RPI y/y | 3.10% | 3.30% | |
| EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 40.3 | 36.3 | |
| EUR | Industrial Production m/m | 1.10% | -0.30% | |
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 37.4 | 32.8 | |
| USD | NFIB Small Business Index | 95.4 | 93.5 | |
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.20% | 0.40% | |
| USD | Business Inventories m/m |
SPEAKERS:
FED's Lockhart (non voter) and & Merkel
GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:
FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing
Summary: There is no leading sentiment from headline news this AM. This suggests that market price action will be wide open to today's economic events & speakers .
Watch out AUD more pain to come - Bloomberg
Asia session ends good for Equities - Bloomberg
This becomes more meaningful should Yellen assume the mantle - WSJ
More E-zone crisis "Not over yet" articles. Not that we disagree but everyone is waiting for the collapse - Telegraph
I am not sure that this comment from Pimco on the steepening Gilt curve will surprise traders - Bloomberg
Commodities rise may signal more belief that FED Talk is working
Here is the proof that the TAPER will come in Sept. why else would the FED put out a by the way report that "FED Talk" is more effective than "QE". Well b/c if is not than look out bond market come sept.
No comments:
Post a Comment