LIVE ECON DATA NEWS & ANALYSIS

AUGUST 14, 2013

MARKET ANALYSIS:

• To readers of our blog you were not surprised by yesterday's ZEW which provided the positive sentiment going into the U.S session open
• Inflation in the U.K showed some waning compared to forecasts yet still above the BOE's mandate (as if that matters)
• US Retails sales were a small beat but the real price action came from more FED Taper talk which re affirms what we have been spewing for some time now and that is the Great Taper will start in Sept.
• SUMMARY: Markets were mixed in the Asia sessions as know one likes that QE Tapering Talk though JPY retained its weakness. With Bund supply to hit the market,  continued positive EU data, E-zone GDP likely to be a beat, and Taper Talk abound our model suggests volatility to rule until E-zone GDP prints and assuming it will be a beat Fixed Income should resume its downward move. DAX will likely be positive though SPX could be choppy.

ECON DATA: IN REAL TIME

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com

SUMMARY: Short Sterling, GBP and Gilt traders we have BOE minutes today and maybe more importantly the U% rate. E-zone Flash GDP should be a beat.

SPEAKERS & Auctions:
FED's Bullard (Voter /   Hawk). // Bunds

GLOBAL MACRO THEMES:

FED Tapering in Sept / Debt Ceiling / Student Loans and Muni's Defaults / Eurozone Dysfunctionality / China Slowdown / Japan's Money Printers / UK Improving on higher inflation and falling wages / EM Slowdown in Full Swing

HEADLINES:
Summary: There are no thematics at work today other than the underlying negative sentiment from China, EM and Commodity Producing Countries. Sentiment alone suggests more Greenback strength at least against EM and Commodity Currencies.


And another hit to the AUD - Bloomberg

And why not, just a little more FED Taper Talk - Bloomberg

I can just tell you, with Taper in Sept all but a sure thing I would not be putting my money into Corp debt unless it is trading with steep discount essentially QE Taper priced in - WSJ

8 red flags to be aware of in this market - Probably more but we get the picture - MarketWatch

Fund Managers show optimism - which explains why most of them lose money - CNBC


As I always say, you can't start a day without a Zerohedge rip of the Chinese economy - Zerohedge

As GDP figures are set to print today in the E-zone they will likely emerge from recession - which just means they're not dead YET - Reuters

Lest we not show enough attention to EM here you go - FT